United States a hahchhiau chuan khawvelin hritlang a kai an ti thin. A nih leh China damlo se eng nge ni ang?
Khawvela economy lian ber mipui 1.4 billion chenna chuan harsatna hrang hrang – slow growth te, youth unemployment sangte leh property market mumal lote a tawk nasa rih hle.
Tunah pawh China-a real estate developer leiba turu tak nei Evergrande-te chu police-te enthlakin an awm mek a, an share te pawh stock market-ah zawrh chhuah khapsakin an awm mek bawk.
Heng thil thlengte hi Beijing lutihai belhtu niin chutih rual chuan khawvel engtiangin nge a nghawng tih chu zawhna pawimawh a ni.
Analyst-te chuan khawvel huapin nghawng chhe tak a nei dawn tih chu sawi uar lutuk an ti a. Mahse, multinational corporation, an hnathawk leh China nena inzawmna neite erawh chu a nghawng lo thei lo tih a ni thung.
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Chak leh chak lo
“Chinese mipui ten chhunah engmah ei lo se, chu chuan global economy a nghawng ang em?” tih chu Deborad Elms, executive director of Asian Trade Centre, Singapore chuan a sawi.
“A chhanna chu i ngaihtuahna aia nasa lo a ni mai thei a, mahse, loh theih lohin Chinese-te laka innghat firm-te chu a nghawng lo thei dawn lo” tiin a sawi.
Khawvela huapa company lian ber ber Apple, Volkswagen leh Burberry-te chuan China consumer market turu tak atangin revenue thahnem tak lalutin household spending a tlem a nih chuan chu chuan a nghawng lo thei dawn lo. Chumi nghawng chu supplier leh worker chung company laka innghat khawvel hmuntina mite chuan an tuar ngei ngei dawn a ni.
China chu khawvel economy thanna hmun thuma thena hmun khat vel lawih awh a nih bawk si avangin a economy lama harsatna thleng chuan a ram piahlam thleng a nghawng lo thei lo.
US credit rating agency Fitch-te chuan thla kalta khan China economy tlahniam chuan khawvel economy dinhmun derthawngah siamin hei vang hian kum 2024 a forecast an siam pawh an ennawn leh phah an ti tawh a ni.
Chutihrual erawh chuan economist thenkhatte chuan China chu global prosperity engine bera sawina chu uar lutuk an ti ve thung.
“Mathematically chuan China chuan global growth-ah 40% vel lawih a hauh” tiin George Magnus, University of Oxford’s China Centre a economist chuan a sawi.
“Mahse tu nge hlawkna tel? China hian trade surplus turu tak a nei a. A chawkluh aiin a thawnchhuah a tam zawk a, hei vang hian China hmasawn emaw hmasawn lo emaw hi khawvel huap aiin China kaihhnawih bik zawk a ni” a ti thung.
China chuan goods and services lamah sum a hmang tlem a, hei vang hian heti lama raw material leh commoditiy-te demand a hniam bawk a. August thla khan China chuan a hma kum nena khaikhinin hawkluh 9% velin a tihniam a ni.
“China-in harsatna a tawh chuan exporter lian ber ber Australia, Brazil leh Africa-a ram tam takte chu a khawih na ber ang” tiin Roland Rajah, director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre, Lowy Institute, Sydney chuan a sawi.
China rama demand hniam avang chuan thil man pawh a hniam zui zel ang a. Western consumer-te thlirna atang thung chuan interest rate tihsan belha awm dawn lovin thil man sang tur thununna tha an ti thung ang.
“Sumdawngte inflation sang avanga harsatna tawkte tan chuan chanchin lawmawm a ni daih zawk” tiin Rajah chuan a sawi a. Hei vang hian hun reilote chhung chu China slowdown avang hian hlawkna nei an awm dawn a. Chutih rual chuan developing ramte tan erawh long-term thilah chuan zawhna a tam thei thung a ti bawk.
Tun hnai kum 10 chuang chu China chuan infrastructure project Belt and Road Initiative a tihah dollar trillion tel investment a ti tawh a.
Khawvel ram 150 chuangin Chinese sum leh technology te kawngpui, airport, seaport leh lei siamna tur an dawng tawh a ni. Rajah chuan China-in ram chhunga harsatna atawh zui zel chuan heng a project kalpui hian harsatna a tawk thei tiin a sawi.
“Tunah chuan Chinese firm leh bank-te chuan ram pawna nasa tak taka hmalakna tur sum lamah harsatna an tawk thei tawh a ni” tiin a sawi bawk.
Khawvelah China
Ram pawna China investment tihhniam chu thil tihmakmawh ni thei a ti a, mahse China ram chhunga economy buai chuan a foreign policy-ah nghawng a nei ang em tih chu zawhna a ni.
China dinhmun tha lo chuan US nena inlaichinna chhia a siamthat tir thei a. America-in China a hrekna avangin Chinese export chu 25% vel lawihin a tlahniam sa tawh a, US Trade Secretary Gina Raimondo phei chuan tun hnaiah American firm-te tan investment tihna hmun tur a ni lo a ti hial a ni.
Mahse Beijing chuan amah hreknate chu nasa taka la sel zui zelin Western ramte chu China laka ‘Cold War mentality’ neiah a puh a, chutihrual chiah chuan authoritarian leader dang Russia hotu Vladimir Putin leh Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad-te a hnaih thung.
Chutihrual chiah chuan US leh EU official-te chuan thla tin China tlawhin bilateral trade sawihona an nei ziah a. A nihna takah chuan mi tlemte chauhin Chinese rhetoric leh Chinese policy tak tak inkar dik tak chu an hria tih a ni.
Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher – chair of the US House Select Committee on China chuan China ram chhunga harsatna hrang hrang chuan China’s leader Xi Jinping chu “a chetdan sawi lawk theih loh” in a siam tia sawiin Taiwan chungchangah pawh “atthlak tak pawhin a che duh thei” tiin a sawi.
Rajah chuan China ‘economic miracles’ chu a tawp a nih chuan Communist Party-te chetlak zui dan tur chuan nghawng a nei nasa ang a ti bawk a. China chuan Taiwan a run duh mai rinna a lian hle a ni.
Beiseiloh beisei
History thlir erawhin beisei loh a thleng fo thin. Kum 2008-a Las Vegas-a subprime mortgage mai mai chuan global economy a nghawng dawt thei a.
Kum 2008-a khawvelin harsatna a tawh ang kha analyst-te chuan a thlen leh hlauin ‘financial contagion’ tiin an sawi a. China property crisis pawh chuan Chinese economy pum tichhe theiin khawvel huapin financial meltdown a thlen thei reng an ti.
US-a subprime mortgage criris avang khan Wall Street investment giant Lehman brothers-te tluchhiain global recession a thlen phah a nih kha.
Khawvel chu nasa taka inthlunzawm chhiat tawh a nih avangin engine of growth pakhatin harsatna namenlo a tawk a nih chuan khawvel pum a nghawng thei tawh a, kan beisei loh takin min nghawng viau thei zel tiin analyst-te chuan an sawi bawk a.
Kum 2008 a khawvelin harsatna a tawh ang kha a thleng nawn ang tihna ni lovin mahse a chang chuan tual chhung emaw ram chhung buaina ang leka ngaih chuan khawvel huapin kan beisei loh takin min nghawng vek thei tiin analyst-te chuan an sawi bawk.